FightsAI Analyzer
Built to find edges Vegas missed.
Shmoo's Book AI · v1.0UFC Only
Built to find
edges Vegas missed.
A pure data-driven UFC fight analyzer. 47 stats per fighter, Bayesian probability, EV-weighted picks with Kelly stake sizing. Zero human bias — and it self-tunes after every fight.
Stats Tracked
47
Categories
10
Auto-Tunes
Live
Live Record
Updates after each fightConfident Picks Only
We grade every pick the algorithm rated Lean, Strong, or Lock. Coin-flips and no-picks (where it tells you to pass) don't count for or against the record.
Live tracking begins UFC 328
Watch the AI prove itself
Need 10 more fights before stats unlock publicly. No fudged numbers, no cherry-picking.
AI Picks
See every pick the AI is locking in.
Each fight on the card scored, ranked, and graded with EV vs Vegas. Subscribe to see the picks before the bell.
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What it is
A research tool, not a hot take.
Most picks you read online are vibes. This is the opposite — every recommendation is reproducible from the data.
Pure stats. Zero opinion.
Pulls 47 fighter stats per side from UFC.com + ESPN. No human bias, no insider tips, no Twitter takes — just the numbers.
10-category breakdown.
Striking, Grappling, Recent Form, Style Matchup, Physical Edge, Cardio, Durability, Fight IQ, Judge Fit, Context. Each shown as a side-by-side bar graph.
Vegas + EV + Kelly.
Compares its win % to Vegas implied %, calculates Expected Value, recommends a half-Kelly stake. If there's no edge, it tells you to pass.
Self-tunes after every fight.
Bayesian weight updates: when wrestling drives a correct pick, wrestling weight goes up. Over time, it learns what actually predicts UFC results.
How it works
Same pipeline every fight.
01
Pull every stat
47 inputs per fighter — striking accuracy, takedown defense, sub avg, reach, age, last 5 fights, camp tier, archetype, and more — auto-synced from UFC.com.
02
Score 10 categories
Derived skill scores: striking power, wrestling, grappling, fight IQ, recent form, durability. Each gets a number, each gets a weight.
03
Bayesian probability
Score gap → sigmoid → win probability. Confidence tier assigned (LOCK / STRONG / LEAN / COIN_FLIP / NO_PICK). You see the breakdown bar by bar.
04
Compare to Vegas
Vegas implied % vs AI %. Edge gets calculated. EV computed against the line. Kelly Criterion sizes the stake (capped at 25% bankroll, half-Kelly).
05
Grade + auto-tune
After the fight resolves, the prediction gets graded. Weights nudge based on which categories drove the right or wrong call. Next card uses smarter weights.
Open it on the next UFC card.
Click the 🤖 AI Analyzer button on any fight. See the breakdown. See where the edge is. Sign in required