Shmoo's Book
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AI Analyzer

Quant meets tape study.

AI ToolPredicts every UFC fightSee →

Quant meets tape study.

Two engines vote on every fight. A 47-stat math model and a pre-card research scout. Dynamically blended into one pick that always commits.

Stats
47
Research
Every
Fighter
Blend
Dynamic
Shmoo's Book AI
$10/ month
Billed monthly · cancel anytime
  • AI pick + win % on every fight on the card
  • Method, round & significant-strike probabilities
  • Full 10-category breakdown + the match tape
  • Independent of Vegas — finds value the market misses
  • Honest record, graded after every card
How it works →

Heads up: the AI won't hit every pick. But the record above is real — 70% on the year, independent of Vegas — and at $10/mo, it gives you the best shot to hit your bets.

Live Record
Wins
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Losses
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Hit Rate
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Units
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AI Picks

See every pick the AI is locking in.

Each fight on the card scored, ranked, and graded with EV vs Vegas. Subscribe to see the picks before the bell.

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See it in action

The exact breakdown you get.

This is the real analyzer — the moneyline pick, the confidence, the 10-category read, method & over/under probabilities, and the value angle. You get it on every fight on the card.

Example
SHMOO'S BOOK AI
Math + Research · Bayesian intervals · graded every card
Charles Oliveira
PICK
Charles Oliveira
Submission Artist
35-10-0·+160
VS
Max Holloway
Max Holloway
Volume Striker
26-8-0·-195
AI Pick · STRONGMath-Based
Charles OliveiraML +160 · 38¢
57%Win
Probabilityrange 50–64%
Bet VerdictPrediction market · not a sportsbook
Value dog — the ML is the play
The model sides with the underdog on the merits. +160 is genuine value.
Fight ProjectionsProbability · not a bet
Over / Under 2.5probability
Over 58% · Under 42%
projected ~13.5 min
Sig. StrikesAI projection
~138
High pace
The AI's read on how the fight plays out — over/under probability and pace. Shown to inform you, not as a bet to place.
Why This PickResearch-Based
  • —Most finishes in UFC history — a live submission threat the second it hits the mat
  • —Massive grappling + scramble edge; Holloway is not a takedown or sub threat
  • —Market's overpricing the favorite — +160 has real value on the merits
Watch Out
If Holloway keeps it standing and piles on volume, his cardio can bank rounds.
How It EndsProbability · not a bet
Charles Oliveira
KO
13%
SUB
26%
DEC
19%
Max Holloway
KO
17%
SUB
2%
DEC
24%
How likely the fight ends each way for each fighter — all six outcomes add up to 100%. Predictions to inform you, not bets to place.
The EdgeAI vs the marketLive
Odds +160
AI
57%
Sportsbook
38%
Polymarketno live market
Kalshicoming soon
Edge
+19.0pt
AI Math PointsCharles Oliveira +8.2
Oliveira
79.4
Holloway
71.2
Biggest EdgesMath-Based
Grappling
Charles Oliveira +13.6
Oliveira
18.2
Holloway
4.6
Fight IQ
Charles Oliveira +3.1
Oliveira
9.1
Holloway
6.0
Style Matchup
Charles Oliveira +2.5
Oliveira
7.0
Holloway
4.5
AI Lifetime · Moneyline
25-10·+6.70u
Manage subscription
Unlock this on every fight on the card →
What it is

A research tool, not a hot take.

Most picks you read online are vibes. This is the opposite — every recommendation is reproducible from the data.

Stats first, research second.
47 fighter stats per side from UFC.com + ESPN, then a pre-card research scout adds the context the numbers can't scrape. No Twitter takes, no insider tips — the data and the tape, not a hunch.
10-category breakdown.
Striking, Grappling, Recent Form, Style Matchup, Physical Edge, Cardio, Durability, Fight IQ, Judge Fit, Context. Each shown as a side-by-side bar graph.
Vegas + EV + Kelly.
Compares its win % to Vegas implied %, calculates Expected Value, recommends a half-Kelly stake. If there's no edge, it tells you to pass.
Graded after every fight.
Every pick is logged and graded against the real result — one honest, public record. No deleted losses, no cherry-picked screenshots.
How it works

Same pipeline every fight.

01
Pull every stat
47 inputs per fighter — striking accuracy, takedown defense, sub avg, reach, age, last 5 fights, camp tier, archetype, and more — auto-synced from UFC.com.
02
Score 10 categories
Derived skill scores: striking power, wrestling, grappling, fight IQ, recent form, durability. Each gets a number, each gets a weight.
03
Bayesian probability
Score gap → sigmoid → win probability. Confidence tier assigned (LOCK / STRONG / LEAN / COIN_FLIP / NO_PICK). You see the breakdown bar by bar.
04
Compare to Vegas
Vegas implied % vs AI %. Edge gets calculated. EV computed against the line. Kelly Criterion sizes the stake (capped at 25% bankroll, half-Kelly).
05
Grade + track
After the fight resolves, every prediction is graded against the real result and added to the public record — an honest ledger you can check, not a screenshot you have to trust.
vs the field

An oddsmaker on your side.

Sportsbooks make their own line — to beat you. Handicappers just follow the book. We make our own line, independent of Vegas, to find you the value.

Handicappers
You are here
Shmoo's Book AI
Sportsbooks
Picks a winner
✓
✓
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Makes its own line
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✓
✓
Independent of Vegas
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✓
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On your side
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✓
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Shows the math
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✓
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Honest record
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✓
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Same system every fight
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✓
✓

The only one that makes its own odds and works for the bettor instead of the house.

Member Reviews
★★★★★

What members are saying.

Real reactions from the community after the card.

★★★★★

“The ai tool nice igl I wasn't tryna fw it at first but it's worth it”

KH
Khanlow
★★★★★

“Good shit! I had 100 on chairez bc of the analyzer”

BR
br1ann88
★★★★★

“that ai lik that ima tail him next time fs”

CC
Cristian Colon
★★★★★

“Definitely subbing next week”

MV
Michael Valenzuela

Open it on the next UFC card.

Click the AI Analyzer button on any fight. See the breakdown. See where the edge is. Sign in required

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